What is really driving the US economic outlook?

Brian Daley, managing director with Bank of America, used what his company monitors as macroeconomic trends to address concerns in the pharmaceutical industry.

At the recent Life Sciences and Accounting & Reporting Congress, Daley’s overall message was that despite recent market turbulence, economic fundamentals remain surprisingly resilient.

According to Daley, the US economy continues to demonstrate remarkable strength despite recent market pullbacks. With nominal growth hovering around 4.5% to 5% when combining organic growth and inflation, the fundamentals appear solid compared to historical standards.

"If you read headline to headline, you would think the sky is falling. But we were very fortunate that the overall economy is very healthy right now,” Daley told the audience.Brian Daley addresses finance and accounting professionals.

He pointed to several key indicators that are trending in the right direction: tight credit spreads, a solid job market, and continued consumer spending. Unlike previous downturns, today’s corporate landscape features relatively healthy balance sheets, with many companies having paid down debt during recent profitable periods.

The S&P 500 remained basically even, gaining 1.5% from its high February 3 to June 5, 2025. During that time period, the Nasdaq fell around 15% on a sharp drop after tariff announcements but has recovered as well. Financial experts point to those tariff announcements, market volatility and market corrections as the reasons for investment fluctuation, rather than fundamental economic deterioration.

“We are technically in a two-year bull market right now,” explained Daley.

What does that mean for pharma?

While all macroeconomic indicators are healthy, the greatest source of current market anxiety stems from trade policy uncertainty. This is related to the ever-changing tariff narrative, as well as hits on US biotech innovation.

For the financial community, it is watching closely as the administration attempts what some describe as a fundamental restructuring of global trade relationships.

“They’re trying to change the entire world trade order,” said Daley. "There’s two outcomes here. When the reciprocal tariffs go in, the other countries can either leave their tariffs where they are and pay the US, or countries can come down and match where the US tariffs were at.”

For pharmaceutical companies with global supply chains, this uncertainty creates significant planning challenges. The duration of any tariff implementation remains the critical unknown variable.

“If it’s on for two or three weeks just to get people to the table to negotiate, are you guys going to change your forecast? I wouldn’t. If it’s on for two or three quarters, do you have to change your forecast and go back to the plan board? Yeah, probably.”

Given all of these factors, life sciences finance and accounting executives could consider the following priorities:

Maintain long-term perspective: Despite short-term volatility, demographic trends remain favorable for healthcare.

Prepare for AI integration: Technological transformation represents both challenge and opportunity. “AI data centers ... are going to add the equivalent of the state of Texas’ power demand. You need to talk about [using AI] for efficiencies, speed to market, and speed to go through your pipelines,” advised Daley.

Balance ESG considerations: While the ESG investment wave has crested, responsible corporate practices remain essential. “ESG is not going away, nor should it. If you run your company really well and do the right things, you’re checking a lot of ESG boxes,” said Daley.

Prepare for reshoring pressures: Trade negotiations may increasingly focus on domestic manufacturing. “We think they want to get everyone to the table, and ultimately bring in more manufacturing and reshoring to the US,” Daley explained.

Learn more at an upcoming life science finance and accounting event.

Quotes have been lightly edited for clarity.

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